Loz from Oz - Tennis picks

[Loz]

1w - 0L (+3.5 units)
Bookie = gamebookers
Each bet = 5 units

Malisse (-3.5) to bt Serra @1.80

After impressive runs from both players, its tricky trying to pick which one of these guys will be shown up as a "pretender" today.

There is no question that Mallisse has the ability to beat the crap out of most players on tour on his day. Having said that, he's been fairly hot and cold the past two years. A tourny win would kickstart his career back into the top level again and build up confidence before the Oz Open.
The downside of Malisse is that he has some mental weaknesses - like chucking tantrums and losing his concentration when a bad line call comes up.

Serra's record this week speaks for itself, as he has beaten Robreo and Niemenen and Hrbaty. If you beat one of these guys, well maybe its fluke, but if you beat all 3 in a week, you just can't ignore that.
As impressive as this run is, he is still not a proven hard court player like Malisse. Its also worht noting that when Serra loses, he generally loses by more than 3.5 games.

I have no doubt you will see a lot more off Serra making a name off clay, but today is where his run will end. Malisse needs this one more badly and has the expereience at this level to put Serra away, maybe not in straight sets, but I am expecting him to get over the hc if he can keep his mind fully on the job.

Good luck!

 

[Loz]

Serra bt Malisse

6:3 6:3

Malisse capitulated far too easilyto ruin this bet. I must have underestimated -Serra, and Malisse was the "pretender" here. No excuses - a loss is a loss and will looking forward to plenty of games this week to pick from.

Update: 1w - 1L (-1.5 units)

 

[Loz]

1w - 1 L (-1.5 units)

Each Bet = 5 units

Boolie = Gamebookers





Robredo to be Tursunov @1.60



Over the years Robredo never fully lived up to his potential on hard courts, but last year he showed a great deal of consistency against top quality opponents on hard court surfaces going 16w-9l.



The big serving Russian/american Tursunov is a heap of raw talent, but has shown on too many occasions that he lacks the mental toughness to consistently pressure his opponents especially during crucial stages in a match.



Tursunov's one-dimensional play will be his downfall againnst the crafty and more experienced Spaniard.



Good luck!

 

[Loz]

Davydekno to bt Berdych @1.75 (-133)

Davydenko has played Berdy 3 times (all in 2005) and won all 3 matches emphatically. Two wins came on hard and indoor hard and the third on clay. Interestingly Berdy only took 1 set in that time.

Davy had a shocker against Volandri in the recent Doha tourny getting thrashed in straight sets on his way out. It was particularly shocking because Volandri went 0w-8l last year on hard court and has never been a domninat forces off the clay circuit. I believe that this is a mere blip in an otherwise stellar stellar year for Davy and would be extremel ydoubtful if he puts up another woeful performance like this anytime soon. Whilst not trying to be a mind-reader about this, I suspect that Davy's mind was set on leaving for Australia as soon as possible to get some match practice in lead up events before the Oz Open.

Berdy has been touted as a future top 10 player for a while. He is still a young guy and last years breakout performance at the MAdrid Masters (Beating Ivan Ljubicic) really marked his arrival on the big stage I believe. No doub the guy has talent being one of only a handful of players to beat the mighty Fed Ex in the past 2 years (which alone is a mighty achievement in my book). However, he was savaged by the volatile Malisse on the way out of the Adelaide open 2 days ago going down 6:3 6:0 which is troubling. Its not the loss which was bothering me, but the magnitude of this loss.

Despite my respect for Berdy, I have to give the edge to Davydenko here especially with generous odds. Davydenko is a hard working bastard and will keep pushing and pushing until he gets the win. Berdy's raw ability will keep him close in this match and maybe even win it, but I think that Davy's psychological edge over Berdy will be the deciding factor here.

Good luck.

 

[scarab]

thks for the picks i am on davydekno with you (got the same odds at Paddypower) Bol

 

[Loz]

Good luck Scarab. I think Davy will get over the line for us - but it will be a fight.

 

[Loz]

Hewitt (-3.5) to bt Spadea @1.80 (-125)

These guys play at the Sydney International, just down the street from where I live. I've been lucky to see Hewitt play there a couple of times and this is one of his favourite tournys having won it 3 times already. The crowd support is quite strong for him.

Hewitt's lead up to this event has been a little patchy for a former World No. 1 but that can be forgiven as most players are shaking off the cobwebs after the end-of-year break. Hewitt was a shock loser to Kohlschreiber in his hometown of Adelaide and I feel that he is now going to raise his game from here on in to the Open in order toget some serious match practice under his belt.

Spadea has not been in great form this pasth year mainl ydue to recurring injuries. These guys have met once before, with Hewitt winning in straights. The match was played in 2003 however, so its probably not all that relevant.

The botom line is that Hewitt is very unlikely to lose this match today. I just think that Spadea is in for a very rough ride today with HEwitt wanting to reassert himself here - and that is not good for the American. Spadea will try and keep it close with Hewitt in the first set, but Hewitt will clos it out in 2 and cover the -3.5 with ease.

 

[Loz]

Melzer (+2.5 games) to bt Chela @1.80 (-125)

Chela is classic hot/cold player - once I would have trust him to win his matches 9/10 times, but have been burnt one to o many times by his inexplicable performances.

Melzer's weakness is that he can't help himself from trying to hit winners every second ball. When he gets them, he usually wins, When he starts missing, he becomes a head-case and packs it in. The smart players know this and usuallly just let him self-destruct on his own.

These guys have played twice. Melzer hammered Chela in straights on carpet in 2003, whilst Chela beat Melzer in a close 3-setter on hard court last year.

If Chela is going to beat MElzer today, I feel that he wil lhave to get it done in straight sets. I have a feeling that Melzer can take at least 1 set off Chela today which would really put the squeeze on Chela having to beat Melzer hansomely in 3 sets.


Good luck

 

[Loz]

Sorry about the late play.. .but add this value pick in.

Groenefeld to bt Safina @3.60 gamebookers

The odds are wrong. Groenefeld at her best has an edge over Safina. Groenefled has a more complete game and plays well out here in Australia. Safina is dangerous but far too inconcsistent and its a joke that she is at low odds of
1.20.

Also, Groenefeld beat Safina last year on hard in 3 sets.

5 units

 

[Loz]

W/L Updates to follow end of the day.
Each bet = 5 units a pop .
Bookie = gamebookers

Andreev (+3.5) to bt Gasquet

Both players had excellent results last year though predominantly on clay.

Whilst Gasquet should probably start favourit because he is known to be alittle more suited to these conditions and have seen him play here a few times before, I think that Andreev is a little bit under-rated here. Andreev has not had his best results on hard court, but it certainly doesnt mean he can't come out to play. Besides, Gasquet looked anything but at his best in his first few matches of 2006, and Igor should be in with a good chance here.

Robredo (-2.5) to bt Tursunov
(See above reasons)

Christophe Rochus to bt Acasuso @2.00

Whilst Acasuso's record on the faster surfaces is improving steadily each year, Rochus should still have the slight edge here. In, their last match Rochus pulled it out in 3 close ones, with Acasuso causing some problems for Rochus.

In any case, Acasuso usually has a slow start to the year and only starts to fire up when the clay season starts so Rochus is a good bet.


Goldstein to bt Volandri @ 2.10

Goldstein 2005 record --> 30w:13l hard court
Volandri 2005 record --> 0w:8l hard court

No disrespect to Volandri as a player, but you can't tell me that Volandri is a favourite against a player who practically lives and breathes on the hard court each year and has a very decent record to boot.

Granted, Goldstein plays half his matches in the Challenger circuit, but this is still no mean feat. I also think that volandri's odds are a bit overblown because of his 3-1 record on hard so far this year and the big upset against Davydenko.

go goldstein

 

[Loz]

The odds on Andreev (+3.5) to bt Gasquet are 1.80 @ gamebookers

 

[Loz]

Serra to bt Santoro @1.90

The last time I picked against Serra, I ended up with egg on my face. Whislt I am still not convinced that Serra is suddenly now a "solid" favourite on hard courts because of his tourny win in Adelaide, I'd be an idiot to ignore his win there, plus, I think that there are some good reasons to back him against a more recognised player in Santoro today.

Firstly, Serra has a lot of match practice in the Aussie conditions having played out an entire week of high quality tennis in Adelaide which is not too different to Sydney. Santoro has virtually just arrived and will be at a distinct disadvantage here.

The second reasons is simply the confidence level Serra must be going through. Having made a breakthrough win like that, he probably feels like he could beat anyone.

Thirdly, when Santoro is hot, then he is REALLY hot and hard to get a handle on. From my experience, his hot streaks usually come around the second half of the year and he his early year form is patchy more often than not.

Go with Serra on this.

 

[Loz]

Vliegen to bt Seppi @1.80

The last couple of years, Vliegen has only occasionaly shown glimpses of his talent. This year I get the feeling that he is trying to turn the corner in his career and is stepping up his game.

So far this year he got to the Semis in Chennai - not bad. HE beat Srichphan a former winner of htat tourny and Wang who is also a dangerous player. He also beat Schuettler which is not saying much these days.

Seppi on the other hand has had a strong run at the Adelaide open having beaten Blake and then came through the qualifier quite strongly. Having said that, Seppi will not match Vliegen today. Vlieigen is capable of hitting some big shots and moving the court much better than Seppi who will not be as comfortabl here as in the clay courts of Europe which is his base.

go Vliegen

 

[Loz]

Seppi bt Vliegen 6:3 6:7 6:3 -5 units
Tursunov bt Robredo 7:6 6:3 -5 units
Tursunov +2.5 bt Robredo -5 units
Spadea (+3.5) bt Hewitt -5 units
Safina bt Groenfeld 6:2 6:1 -5 units

Melzer (+3.5) bt Chela 6:2 7:6 +4 units
Davydenko bt Berdych 7:6 6:3 +3.75 units
Andreev (+3.5) bt Gasquet 6:2 6:4 +4 units
C. Rochus bt Acasuso 6:3 6:3 +5 units
Goldstein bt Volandri (ret) Void
Serra bt Santoro 5:7 6:2 6:4 +4.5 units

******************************************************************
Updated Record 6w: 6l (-5.25 units)

 

[Loz]

Nieminen (-3.5) to bt Goldstein @1.80 (-120)

Nieminen should be far too strong in all departments for Goldstein today. He completely doutclassed the very talent Baghdatis in the first round, and Baghdatis is at least a class and a half above that of Goldstein.

Melzer (+4.5) to bt Hewitt

Unfortunately, the other day I put my $ on Hewitt to beat Spadea by +3.5 games. It turns out that Hewitt has been suffering from stomach cramps these past few days. With this lingering ailment, and, after seeing Melzer's surprisingly disciplined performance against Chela the other day, he should have a decent chance to stay close to Hewitt in this match who will probably not push himself too hard in this one.

Andreev (-3.5) to bt Luczak

Andreev completely destroyed Gasquet in the first round.
Luczak is a handy player who has some big name scalps to his name but I see the Russian winning this one comfortably.

Serra -1.5 to bt Tursunov

Robredo put in a limp dick performance against Tursunov when he effectively had the first set wrapped up and was cruising, he then inexplicably decided to throw the match away. I doubt that Serra will capitulate that easily and I am particularly impressed at the way he fought back from a set down agaisnt Santoro. Momentum is on Serra's side and Tursunov got lucky in facing ***** Robredo the other day. The longer this match goes on, the better the chances Serra will have to beat Tursunov, because sooner or later Tursunov is going to do something stupid as he is prone to do. Serra to win in a close one.

Vik to bt MAyer @1.95

There is very little that impresses me about Mayer's performance over the past 12 months. Vik on the other hand had a particularly strong end to 2005 and seems to have maintained much of his confidence going into this tourny in Auckland. If this was played on clay or grass, I would be inclined to go Mayer's way. However, iIn my mind, Vik is definitely a big favourite in this one, and odds of 1.95 are generous - take it before it falls.


Good luck

 

[Loz]

sorry, odds for matches above where not indicated are 1.80 (-120) from gamebookersr.

 

[Loz]

Bad day at the office.
1w - 4 L today
Net -16 units today

YTD 7w - 10l (-21.25 units)

 

[Loz]

Nieminen (-2.5) to bt Massu @1.80 5 units

Nieminen has beaten Massu twice in the past two years on fast courts losing only 1 in 6 sets to the Chilean. He has had two strong wins under his belt against Baghdatis and Goldstein.

Massu is a player whos success depends a lot on his confidence levels. When he puts a couple of wins together, he is capable of anything. eg. his inspried run at the Olympics.

After two years of fairly luke warm results against players in the top 50, I am not convinced that he will be able to get plast Nieminen who looks just too solid this week.

Clement (+4.5) to bt James Blake @ 1.80

Blake owns Clement. 3 wins all on hard court in straight sets and each winning by an average of 5.5 games.

As impressvie as that record is, two of the wins were back in 2001-2003 and things have changed since then.

Whilst I dont normally rate Clement as the danger man he used to be, he has had a very solid build up this week in Sydney having crusied through the qualifiers and overcome Taylor Dent in the first round.

Blake on the other hand struggled in his match early on against old man Sanguinetti and only put his foot on the gast late in the first set. It could have been an early exit for him. He is nowhere near the peak form that he was showing late in 2005.

I am not brave enought to tip against Blake here, but Clement seems to be in a very decent patch of form which I haven't seen for a while and this should see him keep it close.

Tursunov (+2.5) to bt Andreev @1.80

Tursunov has surprised me a little here. He hasn't had any major brain explosions so far this week and in fact has won his matches against Robredo and Serra with relative ease. Andreev had a much tougher time against Luczak then I expected. I think the +2.5 hc could very well make the difference in what I expect to be a close match.


Good luck!

 

[Loz]

Today 2w - 1L +3 Units
YTD 9w - 11L (-18.25)

Nieminen and Clement came through today thank Goodness. Tursunov missed out in close one but it wasn't to be unfortunately.

 

[Loz]

Some early picks for tomorrow...

Davydenko to bt Blake @2.15 gamebookers

Yes, Blake has a 3-0 record against Davy all on hard courts, and all matches were won pretty convincingy.

However, Blake really struggled early on against Clement. He has made a habit of startign slow against all his opponents this week, and this is worrying, because he should be able to put these opponents away prett quickly. He simmply can't afford to slacken off early agaisnt Davydenko, because the Russian has the ability to make you pay.

Davy has the better form, and I think he will peg one back against Blakey today.

Andreev to bt Seppi @2.00 gamebookers

Andreev leads Sepp in the H2H 2-0 in the past 2 years.

Whilst both wins were on clay, a win is a win and it cant be ignored. Besides, Clay is supposed to be his favoured surface, so that makes me favour Igor even more.

Seppi has had an inspired run in Sydney this week but in all honesty, he hasn't faced the greatest of challenges apart from Vliegen and Hewitt. In HEwitt's case, he choked on 2 match points, and was also suffering from stomach ailments, so Seppi had his fair share of luck. Apart from this win, most of his other matches this week were 3 set struggles aginst mediocre players at best.

Andreev is a solid workman and he just gets the job done. In some ways beating Hewitt could be a negative for Seppi as Seppie is now favoured to win this one, and the pressure is defintely on.

I think the dream run will end for Seppi tomorrow.